2010年,中国GDP在全球的排名让关注中国房地产的人们开始感到中国房价上涨将可能成为一个长期的经济现象。就在这一年里,人民币汇率升值预期同时再次成为世界经济的热点话题。汇率与房价纠结在一起的升值现象,让人们开始更加关注中国政府在房价泡沫上的举措。中国能否具有调控房价的长效之举?本文通过最新实证表明:GDP增长和人民币汇率升值对房价有着显著的影响,且房价上涨和汇率升值互为因果关系。基于该结论,笔者认为,中国政府近来对房价的直接干预,可能会产生预期效果,但遗患甚多,最终将难奏实效。如果房地产政策导向于低收入家庭,政府本着藏富于民的理念,通过夯实住房金融体系来帮助低收入家庭实现“居者有其屋”的梦想,同时又能兼顾不同社会阶层的房产需求,笔者认为这才是长效之举。而在该领域,美国一百多年的经验与教训值得中国借鉴。
<<This article discusses how the pressure on the RMB’s exchange rate appreciation will be a long-term problem alongside the predicted long-term sustained growth of China’s GDP.We use empirical studies show that two factors,China’s housing prices and the exchange rate of the RMB.These two factors interact with each other.Meanwhile,the rapid growth of GDP and the exchange rate of the RMB appear to have significant effect on the housing bubbles in the Chinese markets.We aim to establish that resorting to governmental or administrative means to deal with housing-price bubbles are likely to be ineffectual efforts.Instead,the Chinese government should aim to help lower-income people with home-ownership,thereby ensuring a roof over their heads.As an illustration of successful and planned encouragement of low-income home-ownership,China should consider the past hundred years of the U.S.experience in dealing with housing markets,and identify both the strengths and weaknesses involved in increasing home-ownership for all classes.
<<