中国经济发展和城镇化进入新阶段,农民工回流呈现新特征,更倾向于永久返乡而不是暂时回乡,劳动力从生产率较高的城市部门回流到生产率较低的农村部门,这种“逆库兹涅茨化”现象给城乡融合发展带来挑战。农民工回流是中国经济发展阶段转变和城乡制度约束共同作用的结果,其中,制度因素在“逆库兹涅茨化”过程中扮演重要角色,城市户籍制度与农村土地制度对农民工回流决策均有显著影响,户籍福利价值高、落户门槛高的大城市倾向于“挤出”农民工,对农民工回流形成了推力,而土地财富价值高的农村倾向于“黏附”农民工,对农民工回流形成了拉力。通过深化城乡制度改革,完全消除户籍制度与土地制度的影响,农民工回流比例将至少下降一半,有助于稳定城镇劳动力供给,推动农民工稳定发展。城乡融合发展的前提是要素按照市场机制在城乡之间双向流动,以制度和行政手段推动劳动力回流并不能解决农村现代化的人力资本短缺问题,同步推进户籍制度与土地制度改革,提高城乡要素配置效率,是推动城乡融合发展的关键之策。
<<Chinese economic development and urbanization have entered a new stage. Return of migrant workers presents new characteristics which returning to hometowns permanently rather than temporarily. Workers return from urban sector with higher productivity to rural sector with lower productivity,“Inverse Kuznetsization (IK)” phenomenon poses challenges to urban and rural integrated development. We incorporates urban household registration system (UHRS) and rural land system (RLS)into a unified analysis framework to explain Chinese unique “Inverse Kuznetsization” phenomenon. We found that institutional factors play an important role in process of “IK”. Both UHRS and RLS have a significant impact on decision-making of migrant workers returning. City with higher value of household registration and more difficult to settle tends to “squeeze out” migrant workers with creating a push. While outflow rural areas with high land value tend to “stick” to migrant workers with making a pull.
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