党的十九届五中全会在描绘2035年基本实现社会主义现代化远景目标时,强调“扎实推动共同富裕”。2020年,我国农村居民的人均可支配收入为17131。5元,仅为城镇居民人均可支配收入的39%。且农村居民人口总量仍有5亿,占全国总人口的36。1%。进一步推动农村人口的非农转移,缩小城乡收入差距,是实现共同富裕的充分必要条件。本研究设计两个发展方案。方案一,假定到2035年城乡收入差距为1。8。2035年农村经营户的户均耕地面积为36。75亩。中国农村常住人口规模要降至34790。24万人,届时全国总人口为14。15亿人,由此计算得到2035年城镇化率为75。46%。方案二,假定城乡收入差距为2,2035年农村经营户的户均耕地面积为35。7亩。中国农村常住人口规模要降至35804。18万人,2035年城镇化率为74。74%。根据国际经验,中国的非农就业比重还有上升空间,要扩大城市群和中心城市的公共服务覆盖范围,实现城乡和地区间人均收入与生活质量大致相当,是实现共同富裕的关键。
<<The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) stressed the importance of “solidly promoting common prosperity” in describing the vision of socialist modernization in 2035. In 2020,the per capita disposable income of rural residents in China will be 17,131.5 yuan,which is only 39% of the per capita disposable income of urban residents. And the total rural population is still 500 million,accounting for 36.1% of the total population. Further promoting the non-farm transfer of rural population and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas are sufficient necessary conditions for achieving common prosperity. The study designed two goals:one is assuming the urban-rural income gap of 1.8 by 2035. In 2035,the average arable land area of rural households will be 36.75 mu. China’s rural resident population will fall to 347.9 million,when the total population of the country will be 14.17 million,thus calculating the urbanization rate of 75.46 percent in 2035. Option II assumes that the income gap between urban and rural areas is 2,and that the average arable land area of rural households will be 35.7 mu in 2035. China’s rural resident population will fall to 358.04 million,with urbanization rate of 74.74 percent by 2035. According to international experience,China’s non-farm employment share still has room to rise,to expand the coverage of public services in urban clusters and central cities,to achieve urban and rural and inter-regional per capita income and quality of life is roughly the same,is the key to achieve common prosperity.
<<Keywords: | New UrbanizationRural Population TransferCommon ProsperityUrban-rural Integrated Development |