This study estimates the situation and urbanization characteristics of the Chinese in 2020-2035 by adjusting the fertility rate and the pattern of rural mobility. The results show that：（1）In the future，the impact of the household registration system reform and the adjustment of fertility policy on the growth of urbanization rate has been continuously expanded，and its policy contribution rate has increased from 3.08 percent in 2016 to 4.33 percent in 2019. （2）China’s urbanization rate will continue to improve，the middle plan estimates that the “14th Five-Year Plan” at the end of the urbanization rate of about 65.09%，by 2035 urbanization rate of about 73.78%. （3）From the growth rate point of view，China’s urbanization growth rate will weaken in the future，it is expected that by 2035，urbanization rate will be between 72.67% and 76.91%，up 8.78 to 13.02 percentage points from 63.89% in 2020，with an average annual growth rate of 0.58% to 0.87%. “14th Five-Year Plan” is the key period for China to improve the quality and efficiency of urbanization construction，the household registration system reform and the adjustment of fertility policy brought about by the potential urban population growth，will not squeeze the current demand for urban functional services，urban development will realize the transformation from functional service demand to quality demand.