在迈向现代化的过程中,高质量推进城镇化对构建新发展格局、建设生态文明和促进共同富裕都具有重要意义。本报告在对中国城镇化进行国际比较、对城镇化历史进程进行回顾和对城镇化发展经验进行总结的基础上,对城镇化趋势进行了预测。根据预测,中国将在“十四五”期间出现城镇化由快速推进向逐步放缓的“拐点”,“十四五”期间直至2035年,城镇化推进速度将不断下降;2035年后城镇化将进入一个相对稳定发展阶段,城镇化率最大值大概率将出现在75%~80%。在总结中国城镇化经验的基础上,我们从提高农业转移人口市民化质量、优化城镇化空间格局和增强城镇化要素支撑方面提出了一些改革建议。
<<In the process of modernization,promotion of high-quality urbanization is of great significance to building a new development pattern,constructing ecological civilization and promoting common prosperity. Based on an international comparison of urbanization,a comprehensive review of the urbanization history,and a summary of urbanization experience,this report predicts China’s urbanization trend. According to the forecast,during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,there will be a “turning point” where urbanization will move from rapid advancement to a gradual slowdown. From the “14th Five-Year Plan” period to 2035,the speed of urbanization will continue to slow down. After 2035,it will slow down further and enter a relatively stable development period,with the peak level of urbanization rate between 75% and 80%. On the basis of summarizing the experience of China’s urbanization,it’s proposed that we should improve quality of citizenization of agricultural transfer population,optimize the spatial pattern of urbanization,and enhance the factors support for urbanization.
<<Keywords: | ModernizationUrbanizationSpatial PatternUrban-rural Integrated DevelopmentAgricultural Migrants |