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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2015年工业运行预测和工业景气指数分析

    摘要

    2015年工业生产增速回落,PMI、PPI等指标显示工业经济下行压力有所加大;由于全球主要经济体表现低迷,工业产品出口持续下降;在当前投资继续回落的情况下,工业企业利润降幅进一步收窄。随着消费成为拉动经济增长的主要力量,汽车等部分行业产品产量出现改观,房地产市场销售回暖迹象显现,带动投资出现筑底企稳迹象。工业经济景气合成指数显示,工业运行仍在低位调整,下行压力不减;预警指数中工业增加值增速、投资增速、用电量增速、企业效益增速,包括价格指数均在“过冷”区间徘徊。未来实现工业稳定增长需要加强监管力度,建立公正、公平、公开的市场环境,努力处理好结构调整和传统产业升级的关系,同时需要继续发挥财政对稳增长的积极作用。

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    Abstract

    In 2015,the industrial production growth rate has fallen;PPI,PMI and other indicators show that the industrial economic downward pressure has increased;due to the sluggish performance in the world’s major economies,global industrial product exports have continued to decline;current investments have continued to fall,but the rate of decline in industrial profits has slowed down. With consumption as the main force driving economic growth,the product output in the automobile industry and other industrial sectors appears to change,and the sales in the real estate market appear to have signs of recovery,driving investments towards stabilization with a sign of bottoming-out. The industrial economic synthetic index shows that the industrial operation is still adjusting onto a low level and an economic downward pressure exists;on the early warning index,industrial added value growth,investment growth,power consumption growth,enterprise benefit growth,as well as the price index,are in the “over cold” range. In the future,to keep sustainable industrial growth sustainable,we should enhance the strength of governmental supervision,establish a fair and open market environment,and strive to deal with the relationship between the structural adjustment and the upgrading of traditional industries;moreover,we must also promote the positive role of financial management in stabilizing industrial growth.

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    作者简介
    解三明:工信部运行监测协调局监测预测处。
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