本文旨在探讨近十年中国与东盟国家金融联动性的变化以及对华商发展的意义。研究途径为透过检测美股标普500指数、中股上证综合指数与东盟中的新、马、印、泰、菲五国股市的长期均衡关系于美国次贷危机前后的变化,得出的结论为:中国与东盟国家金融市场间的长期联动性在美国金融危机发生后有增强趋势,中国的影响力提升,显示出当前中国作为东亚区域经济领导者之角色已日渐成熟。具体的建议是:中国应透过构建“一带一路”网络,积极介入东盟国家的基础设施建设;设立离岸人民币市场,以吸引东南亚华商共同参与乃至回中国挂牌上市,最终建立“红色资本市场”,以在“一带一路”战略中发挥作用。
<<The purpose of this study was to survey the variations of financial linkage among China and ASEAN countries in the last decade and the meaningfulness for the development of overseas Chinese merchant by using the tests of the changes in the long-run equilibrium relationships between the U.S. S&P 500 Index,the SSE Composite Index in China and the stock markets of Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,Thailand and Philippines in ASEAN around the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. The main findings demonstrated that there were significant increases in these long-run relationships between China market and the markets of ASEAN countries during the period of the U.S. financial crisis,and China has more influence on ASEAN stock markets. The result shows that China has become an economy leader in East Asia,presently. The suggestions on policy are such as:China should participate in the infrastructure in ASEAN countries by the framework of “The Belt and Road”,and establishes the CNT and the Red Capital Market to attract the Southeast Asian Chinese enterprise listing of their company in China by the IPO.
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