2015年中国各投资市场差异较大。其中,股票市场全年收益较好,市盈率创新高,年中大幅波动,风险加剧;债券市场走出史上最长牛市,利率下行,多类债券发行量井喷,违约风险加剧;商品市场价格持续走低,交易量进一步增长;外汇市场美元走强,人民币进入贬值通道,其他主要货币先弱后强;黄金价格受美联储加息影响震荡下跌;房地产市场投资低迷,销售回暖,房价发生结构性分化;私募股权投资市场募投继续增长,退出进入爆发期,同时风险增加,退出收益下降;公募基金受益股债双牛,规模收益均增长;信托资产规模季度环比首现负增长,整体收益继续下行;银行理财规模季度环比负增长,年内收益率逐步下行;阳光私募规模爆发式增长,收益两极分化;P2P平台增长放缓,成交额指数型增长,收益下行,风险增加,产品亟待规范;“宝宝”类产品规模放缓,收益下降幅度较大。2016年,经济疲弱与无风险利率的不断下行导致大量资金寻求更高收益的金融资产,因此各类资产收益率都将面临下行压力,投资者将面临资产荒的配置难题。
<<In 2015,China’s investment market is different. For underlying assets:stock market’s turmoil eventually received positive return;bond market perform the longest bull market in the history,and many kinds of bond’s issuance blowout;commodity market prices is continue to decline,further growth in the volume of transactions;foreign exchange market co-dominanted by the dollar appreciation and devaluation;gold price is affected by the impact of Fed rate rise;investment and sales in the real estate market performs double day,the house price is structural differentiation;the money raise and investment in private equity market are both hot,the capital withdrawal come into the outbreak period. For portfolio:public fund benefit from shares and bonds gets outperformance;the size of the trust assets shrunk quarter on quarter,and overall revenue continue down;the size of bank finance products financial also shrunk quarter on quarter,the interest rate gradually downward;private funds’ scale explosive growth,revenue is good;P2P platform grows slowdown,earnings goes downward;“bao” products’ scale goes slowdown and revenue is down greatly. In 2016,the weak economy and continuous downward risk interest rate leads to a lot of money search for higher yields of financial assets,so all kinds of asset returns will face downward pressure,investors will face a shortage of asset.
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