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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    莫迪政府大国发展战略的地缘政治考量——兼论中印战略对接的可能性

    摘要

    2014年莫迪执政后,乘大选之势积极活跃于国际舞台,重塑印度的“大国”形象,为印度在世界政坛上博得了许多关注。在国内发展方面,莫迪亦付诸实际行动,推出了一系列改革措施,力促国内经济结构转型、经济增速引领全球。但是,在国际格局迅速变化与安全挑战急剧上升的背景下,这些光环难以掩盖印度经济发展中的结构性难题以及地缘政治理念下的固化思维给印度走向世界带来的阻力。印度是一个“地缘政治想象”极为丰富的国家,基于地缘政治想象的战略认知一旦转换为外交政策或国务活动,其实践意义与相关影响将会得到充分体现。印度过于强调政治意图,更加关注对外经济合作中的安全问题,存在对地缘政治空间发展态势与安全环境变化的焦虑与不安,导致印度对华外交政策面临“战略困境”“合作困境”“安全困境”,对华战略总是在纠结与矛盾中选择。目前,印度对中国提出的“一带一路”倡议备感威胁,中印地缘政治中的矛盾相对突出。印度需要更加开放的心态。

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    Abstract

    After he came into power in 2014,Modi took the advantage of the general election to engage actively in the international arena for reshaping the Indian image of being a “great power”,which enables India to draw a lot of attention in the world politics. In terms of the domestic development,Modi also put his ideas into action by launching a series of reform measures to promote the domestic economic restructuring so that India tops the world in terms of economic growth rate. However,in the context of the rapidly changing international situations and a sharp rise in security challenges,these glories are proved difficult to cover up the obstructions to India going globally due to India’s structural problems in its economic development and the headstrong thinking in the geopolitical concept. India is such a country as rich in the “geopolitical imagination”. Once the cognitive strategy based on geopolitical imagination is converted into foreign policy or state activities,its practical significance and related impacts will be fully reflected. Since India lays too much stress on political intentions,pays more attention to security issues in international economic cooperation and shows worry and anxiety about the geopolitical space development situations and the security environment changes. As a result,India’s foreign policy toward China is facing “strategic dilemma”,“cooperation dilemma” and “security dilemma”,and its chosen strategy toward China is always full of entanglements and contradictions. Currently,India feels threatened about the “One Belt One Road” Initiative proposed by China,which makes Sino-Indian geopolitical contradictions relatively more prominent. Therefore,India needs to have a more open mind.

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    作者简介
    朱翠萍:朱翠萍,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心副主任,教授、博士、硕士生导师,《印度洋经济体研究》编辑部主任。主要研究领域包括海洋战略、南亚问题与中印关系。
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