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    广东外经贸形势分析报告(2015~2016)

    摘要

    2015年世界经济复苏缓慢,国际市场需求疲软。中国经济继续放缓,下行压力有所增加,广东外经贸发展的内外部经济环境较上年复杂严峻。2015年广东外贸继续处于深度调整期,贸易结构不断优化,进出口增速震荡下行,经济新常态特征明显。全年货物进出口总值6。36万亿元,同比降幅3。9%,出口维持低速增长,进口降幅同比扩大。对欧美、东盟贸易保持增长,对中国香港地区、韩国、日本与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易整体下降。一般贸易出口持续高增长,加工贸易进出口下滑过快,后者是全年进出口增速下滑的主因。报告认为:在世界经济复苏乏力、国内经济下行等因素影响下,2016年广东进出口形势仍然较为严峻而且难有根本改善,进出口下行压力加大;全年出口或有改善,但进口表现可能依然疲弱,进出口显著回升的可能性较低。一般贸易进出口额有望首超加工贸易。

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    Abstract

    2015,the world economic recovery is slow,as the demand of international market is weak. China’s economic speed-up postpones when downward pressure has increased. Both internal and external economic environment of Guangdong Foreign Trade are more complex and challenging than that of previous year. 2015,Guangdong’s foreign trade was in a deep period of adjustment,when it’s trade structure continued to improve,import and export growth shock downstream,which showed significant new characteristics of development of foreign trade. 2015 import and export goods worth 6.36 trillion Yuan year on year decline of 3.9%. Exports remained slow growth,year on year decline in imports expanded. Guangdong’s trade with Europe and America maintain the growth,while the trade with Hong Kong,Korea,Japan,and countries along One Belt and One Road declined as a whole. General trade exports continued high growth,with rapid decline in the import and export of processing trade,which is the main cause of the decline in export growth throughout the year. According to the report,under the influence of the weak recovery of world economic,the downward of domestic economic as well as other factors,in 2016,Guangdong’s import and export situation is still severe and difficult to fundamentally improve,with growing downward pressure on import and export;the export might be improved,but performance of import may remain weak. General trade volume of import and export is expected to exceed the processing trade.

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    作者简介
    肖鹞飞:肖鹞飞,广东外语外贸大学教授,《国际经贸探索》主编,主要研究国际金融、世界经济、国际贸易。
    罗远航:罗远航,博士,广东外语外贸大学《国际经贸探索》编辑,主要从事国际经贸规制研究。
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