本文基于对美国、日本、英国、印度、菲律宾、越南、马来西亚、东盟等主体所生产的媒体、智库、行业性报告和咨询的深度阅读和分析(2014~2015年),试图对南海主权斗争对亚太区域社会舆论的影响进行综合评价,并进而提出基本的战略建议。
核心观点如下:(1)美国的皮尤报告选择特殊的时间段和关键词组合的方式,“客观”生产了一种有关中国的偏见,将美国的负面评价弱化,突出中国主动出击式外交引发的强烈国际舆论反弹;(2)印度则在舆论和思潮上体现出区域游移的实用主义特征,并不断强化在中国传统势力范围的存在感,由“大象”进化成“鲸鱼”;(3)日本则通过既突出短程应激又强化远期战略的思潮和舆论体系,表现出它在中国整个海岸线区域的强大干涉能力,并通过联合第三方对中国的国际近海空间釜底抽薪;(4)菲律宾等国则通过“忍辱谋利而远图”的方式,不断强化自身的自我意识和国际策应力,这种“菲公移山填海”策略需要引发中国的战略重视。
<<This paper examines the media reports,special think tank,and business reports in the U.S.,Japan,U.K.,India,Philippines,Vietnam,Malaysia,and ASEAN countries(from 2014 to 2015),and aims to comprehensively analyze the social opinions about the South China Sea’s sovereignty contestation and make basic strategic suggestions.
The core viewpoints can be summed as follows:(1)the Pew report particularly selected the time slot and key words combination and produced a “objective” China bias,which weakens the negative comments on the U.S. and emphasized the international public opinion rebounded by the aggressive Chinese diplomatic strategies.(2)India,on the other hand,showed a libratory pragmatism in their public opinion and ideology,and strengthened the presence in the traditional Chinese sphere of influence,which is an evolution from elephant to whale.(3)Japan performed a strong intervention power through emphasizing the short-distance stress-coping and strengthening the ethos and public opinion in long-term strategies.(4)Philippines and other countries enhanced their self-consciousness and international reaction capacities by bearing humiliations and aiming for long-term benefits,which is an action that worth strategic attention from China.
<<Keywords: | South China SeaSovereignty ContestationAsia Pacific SocietyPolitical AnthropologyMediascapeIntegrated Policy Making |