更多>>
课题组动态
更多>>
皮书作者
热点推荐：
双循环
广东融入全球价值链体系需要研判自身与“一带一路”沿线国家的产业合作现状，分析广东与沿线国家产业贸易和投资的互补竞争性。本文构建区域产业贸易和投资相似度和结合度指数，基于面板自回归模型（PVAR），考察1995～2014年广东与“一带一路”沿线国家的产业互补性和竞争性的演进状况，研判广东与沿线国家产业贸易与投资竞合状况和联动性。研究发现，在贸易和投资方面，广东与东盟和南亚产业的竞争性最强，与西亚和中亚互补性最强；广东与“一带一路”沿线国家产业的滞后贸易或投资对当期贸易或投资存在正向影响；广东与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易和投资存在联动性，相比贸易增加，投资增加的响应速度更快；“一带一路”倡议的提出对产业贸易和投资有显著的正向作用，相较产业贸易，其对产业投资的作用更为明显。
<<Guangdong province integrates into global value chain system demanding the inquiry of production cooperation and analyzing complementarity and competitiveness in trade and investment on Guangdong and countries along “One Belt and One Road”.Based on establishing PVAR model，this paper develops and calculates export similarity index and trade intensity index，elaborating the evolution of complementarity and competitiveness of production cooperation from 1995 to 2014，to lucubrate co-movement in trade and investment for Guangdong and countries along the “One Belt and One Road”.The results show that Guangdong are in most fierce competition with ASEAN and South Asia but in highest complementarity with Central Asia and West Asia in trade and investment.Co-movement exists in trade and investment on Guangzhou and countries along “One Belt and One Road”.Compared with increasing trade，investment moves in faster rate.Productivity in lag of trade and investment have a positive influence on the current trade or investment.Trade and investment on production cooperation are positively correlated with proposal of The Belt and Road Initiative which has greater impact on investment，compared with trade.
<<
