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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    “十四五”时期中国城镇化、内需增长及其主体区域研究

    摘要

    新发展格局是立足当前、着眼长远的战略谋划,重点是构建完整的内需体系。城镇化是构建完整内需体系的关键。本报告按照“是什么、为什么、在哪里”的逻辑顺序依次展开,首先回顾了中国的城镇化历程,通过多模型比较,预测2025年中国的城镇化率将达到67。21%,内需市场潜力巨大,并与五大发达经济体进行了对标研究。然后,构建两区域、两要素、两部门的理论模型,阐释城镇化与扩大消费、扩大投资的理论机理。依次使用全国和31个省域的面板数据,分析城镇化与消费、投资的相关关系。城市群是未来中国区域空间的主体形态,“十四五”时期中国内需市场的主体区域应由具有较强吸引力、紧密经济社会联系和承载未来主导产业的核心城市群构成。综合城市人口流动、城市群内部经济社会联系度、人工智能相关企业的布局特征,研判“十四五”时期中国内需市场的主体区域由京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区、成渝城市群、长江中游城市群等五大城市群构成,这种空间格局具有“大分散、小聚集”的优势,是内需市场的重点支撑区。

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    Abstract

    Urbanization is the key to build a complete domestic demand system. According to the logical sequence of “what,why and where”,this paper reviewed firstly China’s urbanization process. Through multi model comparison,it was predicted that China’s urbanization rate would reach 67.21% in 2025,with huge domestic demand market potential,and made a benchmarking study with the five developed economies. Then,it constructed a theoretical model of two regions,two elements and two departments to analyze the theoretical mechanism of urbanization and expanding consumption and investment. Using the panel data of the whole country and 31 provinces,this paper analyzed the relationship between urbanization and consumption and investment. Urban agglomeration is the main form of China’s regional space in the future. The main area of domestic demand market should be composed of core urban agglomeration with strong attraction,close economic and social ties and bearing future leading industries. Based on the urban population flow,the degree of economic and social connection within the urban agglomeration and the layout characteristics of artificial intelligence related enterprises,it was judged that the main area of the domestic demand market in the 14th five year plan period would be composed of five urban agglomerations such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei,the Yangtze River Delta,the Great Bay area of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao,Chengdu and Chongqing and the middle area of the Yangtze River. This spatial pattern has the advantages of “large dispersion and small aggregation”,and was the key support area for building China’s domestic demand market.

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    作者简介
    胡安俊:胡安俊,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所副研究员、硕士生导师,主要研究方向为宏观经济、技术经济与区域经济。
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