2020年国民经济在遭遇前所未有的疫情冲击后从第二季度开始步入快速恢复轨道,经济增长进入新一轮短周期的扩张期,11月以后的经济运行回到景气“正常”区间,2021年前两个月的景气水平高于疫情前,反映国民经济基本恢复正常,但需求端的恢复弱于供给端。受基数影响,2021年GDP等主要指标的季度增速将呈前高后低走势,预计全年GDP增长9。3%左右,两年平均增长5。8%左右;全年CPI上涨1。2%左右。宏观调控应保持政策的连续性、稳定性与可持续性,继续推进落实“六稳”“六保”政策,同时需处理好恢复经济和防范风险之间的关系。
<<In 2020,the national economy has entered a rapid recovery track since the second quarter after the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 epidemic,the economic growth has entered the expansion period of a new short-cycle,and has returned to the “normal” in November. The economic growth in 2021M1 and M2 has obviously been higher than that before the epidemic,reflecting that the national economy has basically returned to normal,but the recovery on the demand side is weaker than the supply side. Affected by the base,the quarterly growth rate of GDP and other major indicators in 2021 will show a pattern going from high to low. It is predicted that the annual GDP growth rate will be about 9.3% and the two-year average one will be about 5.8%,while the annual inflation rate will be about 1.2%. Macroeconomic policies should maintain continuity,stability and sustainability,continue to ensure “six priorities” and “six stability”,and balance the economic recovery and risk prevention.
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