准确测量中国生育政策调整后妇女再生育意愿及影响因素,正确判断生育意愿的变化趋势和变化过程,成为研究中国生育政策调整的核心问题之一。通过CSS2021年调查数据,并结合以往的调查,对生育水平现状、生育意愿以及生育计划情况加以研判,分析发现:①18~49岁的育龄妇女平均亲生子女数为1。37个,二孩育龄妇女占40%左右,成为目前生育的主体。②生育水平的区域差异显著,东北、华北和华东地区育龄妇女平均子女数在1。3个以内。③育龄人群理想子女数具有高度的稳定性,18~49岁育龄人群平均理想子女数一直介于1。96~2。00个之间,始终低于2。10的生育更替水平。④尽管二孩生育意愿占绝对优势,但二孩生育意愿的相对占比下降,一孩和三孩等上升,生育意愿的分化已经初露端倪。⑤育龄人群再生育意愿较低,女性计划再生育的比例低于男性。⑥“90后”三孩终身生育意愿还存在提升空间,实现不确定人群的生育意愿转化是提升目前低生育水平的关键。
<<Accurately measuring women’s reproductive intention and its influencing factors after the adjustment of China’s reproductive policy,and correctly evaluating the trend of reproductive intention have become key issues in the study of China’s reproductive policy adjustment. Based on the survey data of CSS2021,this paper studies the current situation of fertility level,fertility willingness and family planning. It is found that:(1)The average number of children for women aged 18-49 is 1.37,and about 40% of them have two children,who are the main body of the fertility policy target population;(2)The average number of children in Northeast,North China and East China is less than 1.3;(3)The ideal number of children of this group is highly stable,and the average ideal number of children is between 1.96-2.00,which is lower than the fertility replacement level of 2.10. (4)Although the second child fertility intention is absolutely dominant,the relative proportion decreases and the first and third child fertility intention increases,where the differentiation of fertility intention has begun to take shape. (5)People of childbearing age are less willing to have another child,and the proportion of women planning to have another child is lower than that of men. (6)There is still room to improve the third child fertility willingness of the post-90s. The key is to realize the transformation of fertility willingness into reality among people with uncertain intention.
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