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谢伏瞻
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    2021~2022年国际贸易形势回顾与展望:复苏强劲 增速回落

    摘要

    由于受到疫情的巨大冲击,2020年世界货物贸易实际增速为-5。3%,是继国际金融危机引发贸易大崩溃之后的第二次大幅下滑。由于能源价格的下降,2020年世界货物贸易名义增速为-7。6%,低于实际增速。世界商务服务出口额为4。9万亿美元,下降20%。2021年上半年世界货物贸易和服务贸易复苏都较为强劲。上半年世界货物贸易实际增速为13。1%,世界服务贸易表现也很好。贸易晴雨指数显示,2021年下半年世界货物贸易和服务贸易将继续保持复苏态势,全年的货物贸易实际增速为10%左右。预计2022年世界贸易继续复苏,但实际增速与2021年相比将回落,为5%~8%。

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    Abstract

    Due to the huge impact of the epidemic,the real growth rate of world goods trade in 2020 was -5.3%,which was the second sharp decline after the international financial crisis and trade collapse in 2010. The nominal growth rate of world goods trade in 2020 was -7.6%,lower than the actual growth rate,mainly due to the decline of energy prices. In 2020,the world’s export of business services was US $4.9 trillion,a decrease of 20%. In the first half of 2021,the world trade in goods and services recovered strongly. In the first half of the year,the volume of world trade in goods actually increased by 13.1%,and the situation of world trade in services also performed well. Trade barometer reveals that the world trade in goods and services will continue to recover in the second half of 2021. The real growth rate of goods trade in 2021 is about 10%. It is expected that world trade will continue to recover in 2022,but the growth rate will fall compared with 2021,and the goods trade growth rate will be in the range of 5% and 8%.

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    作者简介
    苏庆义:苏庆义,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,研究领域为国际贸易、世界经济。
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