当前中国经济的外部需求强劲、内需相对较为疲弱。但是从长期来看,靠外需拉动的经济增长方式并不可取。我们不宜回到过度依赖外需的老路上去。稳定就业和促进经济增长,更多地要着眼于扩大内需战略。并且海外市场的供给、需求缺口也有望缩小。在基准情形下,2022年我国出口增速将可能面临回落压力。同时,我国内需依然偏弱,经济复苏不充分、不平衡,内生动力相对不足。这尤其体现为消费需求不足,基建投资和房地产投资增速下行。在此背景下,当前是使用积极货币政策的有利时机。我们应充分发挥货币政策的作用,同时关注其对资产价格的影响、不能放松宏观审慎政策,并配合以充足的汇率弹性。
<<At present,China’s economy is facing the structural problem of strong external demand and relatively weak domestic demand. In the long run,the growth relying on external demand-driven is not desirable. To stabilize employment and economic growth,we should focus more on the strategy of expanding domestic demand. The gap between supply and demand in overseas markets is also expected to narrow. Under the baseline scenario,China’s export growth may face downward pressure at the end of 2021 or in the first half of 2022. Meanwhile China’s domestic demand is still weak,the economic recovery is inadequate and unbalanced,and the endogenous driving force is relatively insufficient. This is particularly reflected in the weakness of consumption,infrastructure,and real estate investment. Against this background,it is an opportune time to use aggressive monetary policy. We should give full play to monetary policy,while keeping an eye on its impact on asset prices,and align them with sufficient exchange rate flexibility.
<<