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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    全球能源政治(2020~2021)

    摘要

    过去一年,新冠肺炎疫情的影响在弱化,全球经济开始复苏,油气价格上涨,天然气价格涨幅更大。拜登上台后部分放弃了对北溪-2项目的制裁,该项目因而有望在2021年底供气。美国对伊朗的制裁有所松动,但年内形势依然不乐观。新冠肺炎疫情并没有影响巴西的原油生产。美国制裁使得委内瑞拉、伊朗的原油日产量继续大跌,为此两国均采取多项应对措施。新冠肺炎疫情导致美国与伊拉克的原油产量下降,南苏丹的产量也微降,但南苏丹政局比较稳定,而苏丹则进入相对动荡期,并且新冠肺炎疫情也比南苏丹严重。拜登上台后恢复了奥巴马时期的能源政策。土耳其溪已经向土耳其与5个南欧国家供气。尼日利亚拖延了20年的石油工业法案终于获得通过。2022年新冠肺炎疫情对人类的影响会小于2021年,油气需求可望进一步提升,价格也将进一步上涨。

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    Abstract

    In the past year,the impact of the COVID-19 has been weakening,the global economy has begun to recover,oil and gas prices have risen,and natural gas prices have risen even more. After Biden took office,he partially abandoned sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 project. Therefore,this project is expected to supply gas by the end of 2021. The sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran have been loosened,but the situation during this year is still not optimistic. The COVID-19 has not affected Brazil’s crude oil production. the United States’ sanctions have caused the daily crude oil output of Venezuela and Iran to continue plummeting. For this reason,both countries have adopted multiple countermeasures. The COVID-19 has led to a decline in crude oil production in the United States and Iraq,and South Sudan’s production has also declined slightly,but South Sudan’s political situation is relatively stable,while Sudan has entered a period of relative turbulence,and the COVID-19 is also more serious than South Sudan. After Biden took office,he restored the energy policy of the Obama’s term. TurkStream has supplied gas to Turkey and 5 southern European countries. Nigeria’s oil industry bill,which had been delayed for 20 years,was finally passed. In 2022,the impact of the COVID-19 on humans will be less than 2021,and oil and gas demands are expected to further increase,and oil and gas prices will also rise further.

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    作者简介
    薛力:薛力,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员、博士生导师,主要研究领域为国际战略与中国外交。
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