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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021~2022年亚太经济:经济复苏曲折前进

    摘要

    2021年,亚太经济触底反弹,经济复苏在疫情反复之中曲折前进,亚太地区17个国家的加权平均经济增速预计为6。2%,比上年提高7。6个百分点。亚太地区在2021年的经济表现依旧好于全球,区域内多数国家经济增长由负转正,但主要动力来自中国,中国在支持亚太经济增长方面的角色愈发凸显,其他经济体的整体增长表现逊于全球。整个地区通货膨胀上行,货币相对美元多出现贬值,经常账户余额总体下降,政府债务多温和上升。展望2022年,广泛接种疫苗有助于韩国、加拿大和澳大利亚的经济复苏,但需关注政策宽松下的金融稳定问题;由于疫苗尚未普及,印度尼西亚经济的复苏则仍将受疫情影响。2022年疫情对亚太经济的负面影响将进一步递减,而美联储缩减量化宽松政策将是2022年亚太经济体在金融领域面临的最大不确定性,但是亚太地区作为全球经济增长引擎的作用有望再度加强。

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    Abstract

    In 2021,the Asia-Pacific economy rebounded. The economic recovery was with twists and turns as the pandemic resurged. The weighted average economic growth rate of 17 countries in the Asia-Pacific region was expected to be 6.2%,an increase of 7.6 percentage points over the previous year. The Asia-Pacific region’s economic performance in 2021 remained better than the global economy. But the main driver was China,with other economies’ growth rate being lower than the global level. China’s role in supporting economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region became increasingly prominent. Most countries in the region turned into positive growth in 2021. Inflation rose in the Asia-Pacific region,most currencies depreciated against dollar,current account balance fell,and government debt continued rising modestly. The broader use of vaccines would contribute to the recovery in South Korea,Canada and Australia in 2022. But these countries should focus on financial stability issues. As vaccines were not yet widely available,Indonesia’s economic recovery would continue to be largely affected by the COVID-19. The negative impact of the pandemic on the Asia-Pacific economy would diminish further in 2022. The Fed’s tapering would be the biggest financial uncertainty facing by Asia-Pacific economies in 2022. The role of the Asia-Pacific region as an engine of global economic growth was expected to strengthen again.

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    作者简介
    杨盼盼:杨盼盼,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员,国际金融研究室副主任,研究领域:国际金融、亚太经济。
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