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    全球武装冲突与军事形势评估(2020~2021)

    摘要

    2020~2021年全球武装冲突的数量与烈度总体与上一年基本持平,一些地区和国家冲突烈度有所增强。全球武装冲突爆发地区主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲地区与中东地区。在国家层面,阿富汗内战结束以及阿塔重新掌权、巴以爆发激烈武装冲突、印巴小规模武装冲突不断、阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚爆发边境战争等重大国际冲突事件对所在地区的安全形势与地缘政治态势产生复杂深远的影响。在军事演习方面,2020~2021年全球主要国家和国家集团的军事演习突出跨军种一体化、军事作战机动性以及提升军事战备水平的特征。在军备发展与国防战略动向方面,全球主要国家继续深化军事现代化改革,注重高新军事技术的研发,国家间军事装备现代化与科技化的竞争态势进一步凸显。同时,全球主要军事大国越发重视太空、网络、电磁频谱等新兴作战领域能力建设,预计未来国家间军事竞争将向“陆、海、空、天、网、电”的“联合全域作战”方向发展。

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    Abstract

    The number and intensity of global armed conflicts in 2020-2021 basically keep the same as that in the previous year,and the intensity of conflicts in some regions and countries has increased. Global armed conflicts are mainly concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. At the national level,major international conflicts such as the end of the Afghan civil war and Afghan Taliban’s return to power,the outbreak of fierce armed conflicts between Palestine and Israel,the continuous small-scale armed conflicts between India and Pakistan,and the border war between Azerbaijan and Armenia have complicated and far-reaching impacts on the security situation and geopolitical situation in the region where the country is located. In terms of military exercises,the 2020-2021 military exercises of major countries and groups of countries around the world highlight the features of cross-service integration,military operation mobility and improved military readiness. In terms of armaments development and national defense strategy,global major countries continue to deepen military modernization reform and pay attention to the research and development of new and high-tech military technologies. The competition between countries in military equipment modernization and technicalization has become more prominent. Meanwhile,global major military powers are increasingly paying attention to the building of capabilities in space,cyberspace,electromagnetic spectrum(EMS)and other emerging domains of combat. It is expected that military competition between countries in the future will develop in the direction of “joint all-domain operations” involving “land,sea,air,space,cyberspace and EMS”.

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    作者简介
    徐进:徐进,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员,主要研究领域为大国关系、中国外交。
    张晋岚:张晋岚,中国社会科学院大学国际关系学院2019级博士研究生。
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