美国两党已形成共识,锁定中国为美国全球霸权地位最严峻的“威胁”,而“关键和新兴技术”则是大国竞争的核心领域。与特朗普全面出击的政策不同,拜登政府采取了“自强”、精准遏制、与国外交三大对华科技竞争政策,以在中美权力转移过程中进行霸权护持、防止中国形成对美“不对称优势”。拜登对华科技竞争政策也受到了美国党派政治和极端主义潜流的影响。为了有效进行对华科技竞争,美国准备放弃一些其所珍视的原则。虽然拜登政策延续的可能性极大,但美国国家极端主义潜流亦可能会使美国采取更为激进的政策。美国对华科技竞争是全球化的逆流,有可能引发西方集团保护主义。中美关系已不可能回到前特朗普时代,中国必须做好与美国长期斗争,尤其是在科技领域斗争的准备。
<<It is the bipartisan agreement in the United States that China has become the most severe challenger to America’s global hegemonic position,while “critical and emerging technology” has become the core realm of great power competition. In contrast to Donald Trump’s policy of all-out technological competition with China,Biden Administration technological competition against China is featured by three main policies,namely,self-strengthening,targeted containment and cooperation with partners. The aim of these policies is maintaining America’s global hegemonic position in the course of American-Chinese power transition,and preventing China from obtaining “asymmetric advantages” vis-à-vis the United States. Biden’s technology policy towards China is also influenced by party politics and the extremist undercurrent in American politics. To effectively compete with China in the technological realm,the United States is ready to forfeit some of its treasured principles. Although Biden’s policies are mostly likely to prevail,swayed by the extremist undercurrent in American politics,there is possibility that the United States pursues more extreme policies in the future. The United States’ technological competition against China is a major backpedaling on globalization,and is likely to trigger collective protectionism of the Western world. For Sino-American relations,there is no turning back to the pre-Trump era. China has to get ready for enduring competition with the United States,especially in the technology realm.
<<Keywords: | Sino-US RelationsTechnological CompetitionGreat Power CompetitionHegemonic MaintenanceCritical and Emerging Technologies |