Scenario planning，as an analytical tool and method suitable for formulating enterprise development strategies in complex and uncertain environments，can effectively guide enterprises to identify early risk signals and incorporate core variables into the monitoring system. Before the change，plan ahead and be able to take measures to deal with it calmly. The article analyzes the background，application scope，advantages，disadvantages and use steps of scenario planning，and points out the changes in the external environment of UDIC during the “Fourteenth Five-year Plan” period，to guide the preparation of the development plan of UDIC during the “Fourteenth Five-year Plan” Effectively apply scenario planning methods to better cope with the impact of changes in the external environment on corporate development.