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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    极端天气气候事件对能源系统安全的影响

    摘要

    能源系统对于人类社会的重要性不言而喻。在全球变暖背景下,能源系统面临多重挑战,一方面,气候变化导致极端天气气候事件愈发频繁、影响加大,对现有能源系统构成威胁;另一方面,为了应对气候变化,人类社会需要加速能源系统的转型,实现能源系统的低碳化,建立以清洁能源为主的能源系统,而风光水等清洁能源的开发利用直接受到气候条件的影响,转型的能源系统同样也面临在极端天气气候事件增多情景下提高安全保障能力的问题。本文针对上述相关问题,分析了极端天气气候事件对能源系统的影响和能源系统转型中的气候服务,提出要提高气象灾害防御能力,降低气象灾害风险,建立形成适应气候变化的能源系统;要强化对风能太阳能等清洁能源的监测、预报、风险评估和管理能力建设,优化风能太阳能开发布局,建立形成清洁低碳生态的能源系统。 <<
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    Abstract

    Energy is essential to human society. In the context of global warming,the energy system is facing multiple challenges. On the one hand,climate change leads to more frequent extreme weather and climate events and increased impact,which poses a threat to the existing energy system. On the other hand,in order to mitigate climate change,human society needs to accelerate the transformation the low-carbon of the energy system in which it was dominated by clean energy. The development and utilization of clean energy such as wind energy,solar energy and hydropower are directly affected by climate conditions. The transformed energy system is also faced with the problem of improving its adaptation capability under the scenario of increasing extreme events. In view of the above related issues,this paper analyzed the impact of extreme weather and climate events on the energy system and discussed the future climate service for energy system transformation. It suggested that the energy system should pay attention to the impact of meteorological disasters and climate change,improve the defense ability of meteorological disasters,reduce the risk of meteorological disasters,and establish an energy system to adapt to climate change. It also suggested that we should strengthen the monitoring,forecasting,risk assessment and management capability of clean energy such as wind and solar energy,optimize the distribution of wind and solar energy exploration,and build a clean,low-carbon and ecological energy system.

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    作者简介
    肖潺:肖潺,国家气候中心正高级工程师,主要研究方向为气候与气候变化影响评估、气象灾害风险管理。
    许红梅:许红梅,国家气候中心正高级工程师,主要研究方向为气候变化影响模拟与评估。
    艾婉秀:艾婉秀,国家气候中心正高级工程师,主要研究方向为气候与气候变化服务。
    王秋玲:王秋玲,国家气候中心高级工程师,主要研究方向为气象灾害风险评估。
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