China’s implementation of carbon neutrality commitments will lead to significant changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions,terrestrial ecosystems carbon sinks,which can indicate the effectiveness of the implementation of carbon neutrality policies and plans. In order to develop a feasible road map for carbon neutrality by 2060,it is necessary to clearly understand the current status and uncertainty of the current carbon balance estimation and the challenges for improving the carbon balance estimation methods. China’s CO2 emissions increased from 3.29 ± 0.31 in 2000 to 7.62 ± 1.31 in 2009 and 10.11 ± 0.91 Gt CO2 in 2019,respectively. The average annual total emissions in the first and second decades of this century were 5.2. ± 0.34 and 9.34 ± 0.63 Gt CO2,respectively,and the average annual growth rate decreased from 9.0% to 2.3%. The carbon sequestration of China’s terrestrial ecosystems varies between 0.77 ± 0.73 and 1.87 ± 0.66 Gt CO2/year from 2000 to 2019,with a 20-year average of 1.32 Gt CO2,accounting for 10.6% of the average annual total carbon sequestration of 1.25 Gt CO2 in the global terrestrial ecosystem from 2010 to 2019. Compared with the carbon neutrality target,the average net carbon revenue and expenditure between 2000 and 2019 is 6.22 and 8.91 Gt CO2 in 2019. There are huge differences in CO2 emissions,ecosystems sequestration and gaps to carbon neutrality among provinces. Only Tibet and Qinghai Provinces have achieved carbon neutrality,and the net carbon sink (contribution to national carbon neutrality) is 47 million tons and 30 million tons of CO2 per year;The top five provinces with the largest carbon neutrality deficit have a deficit of more than 500 million tons of CO2 per year. Finally,the problems and sources of uncertainties faced by China’s carbon neutrality assessment are analyzed,and the directions of urgent improvement and development in estimation of China’s carbon neutrality and carbon sinks is prospected.
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