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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2021年中国投资形势分析与2022年展望

    摘要

    2021年前三季度,全国投资两年平均增长3。8%,总体保持了稳定恢复增长态势。国有控股投资两年平均增速低于疫情前水平,民间投资在经济持续稳定恢复和出口需求带动下增长较快,但恢复动力趋于减弱。基础设施投资增长趋缓。制造业投资增速下降,但高技术制造业投资快速增长。房地产开发投资平稳增长。中部地区投资恢复动力较强,恢复持续性较好。受利用外部资源和外部市场受限、外部约束增强、稳预期困难增大等因素影响,未来投资仍会面临一定下行压力。应按照加快构建新发展格局要求,准确把握新形势下投资消费循环新特征,调整优化投资方向和投资重点,充分发挥投资增长对消费增长的促进作用,不断加强投资的事中事后监管,合理引导投资主体预期,提高投资消费循环效率。

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    Abstract

    In the first three quarters of 2021,China’s investment increased by an average of 3.8% of two years,and generally maintained a stable recovery growth trend. The average growth rate of state-owned holding investment in the past two years was lower than that before the epidemic. Private investment grew rapidly driven by the sustained and stable recovery of the economy and export demand,but the momentum for recovery and growth tended to weaken. The growth of infrastructure investment slowed down. The growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased,while the investment in high-tech manufacturing increased rapidly. Investment in real estate development increased steadily. The investment recovery momentum in the central region was strong and the recovery sustainability was good. Affected by the restrictions to utilize the external resources and markets,enhanced external constraints,increased difficulties in stabilizing expectations and other factors,future investment may still face certain downward pressure. In accordance with the requirements of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern,we should accurately grasp the new characteristics of the investment-consumption circulation under the new situation,adjust and optimize the investment direction and investment focus,give full play to the role of investment growth in promoting consumption growth,constantly improve the supervision in process and afterwards of investment,reasonably guide the expectations of investors and improve the efficiency of investment-consumption circulation.

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    作者简介
    张长春:
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