2021年中国国际收支总体上维持“一顺一逆”格局,国际收支基本平衡,国际投资头寸稳步增加,但也表现出经常账户盈余积累动力有所疲软、非储备性质金融账户波动性上升、储备资产存流量呈现背离、净误差与遗漏项流出规模显著的结构性特征。中国国际收支的变化将对国内宏观经济构成一定的潜在影响。展望2022年,中国国际收支大概率将呈现出经常账户顺差小幅缩减、非储备性质金融账户季度余额变动不居、储备资产小幅缩减、净误差与遗漏项流出的结构性特征,年度数据有望继续维持“一顺一逆”的格局。为进一步改善国际收支状况,未来应加强人民币汇率形成机制改革、稳慎推进资本账户开放、将宏观审慎政策与资本流动管理有机结合起来、完善金融风险监测预警系统。
<<In 2021,China’s balance of payments generally maintained a “positive and negative” pattern,with a basic balance of BOP and a steady increase in IIP. However,it also showed some structural characteristics,such as weak driving force of current account surplus accumulation,rising volatility of non-reserve financial accounts,deviation of reserve assets deposit flow,and significant outflow of net errors and omissions. The change of China’s balance of payments will have a certain potential impact on the macro-economy. Looking ahead to 2022,China’s balance of payments will show structural features such as a slight decrease in current account surplus,a slight decrease in the quarterly balance of non-reserve financial accounts,a slight decrease in reserve assets,and still significant net outflow of errors and omissions. The annual data will maintain a “positive and negative” pattern of balance of payments. In order to further improve China’s balance of payments situation,we can strengthen the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,prudently promote capital account opening,incorporate macro-prudential policies into long-term means of managing capital flows,improve financial risk monitoring and early warning system,and further optimize China’s balance of payments structure.
<<Keywords: | Balance of PaymentsCurrent AccountReserve AssetsNon-reserve Financial AccountErrors and Omissions |