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    2019~2021年中国货币金融形势分析与风险防范

    摘要

    基于对疫情的有效控制、逆周期调控政策的有效对冲和跨周期调节的有序衔接,2021年的中国货币金融形势从极度宽松逐步回归至相对中性的水平,具体表现为:在政策趋严叠加实体融资需求减弱的背景下,信贷、社融增速以及宏观杠杆率均有所下行;货币市场流动性总体平稳,短期利率低位震荡;国内股票市场增幅较小,内部结构分化且波动性加剧;债券市场陷入结构性“资产荒”,信用债融资恢复但分化明显;房地产市场显著降温;国内大宗商品价格的飙升趋势得到有效控制;人民币汇率持续上行。展望2022年,我国金融风险防范的重点在于四个方面:外部冲击风险、房地产风险、地方债务风险及中小银行风险。相应地,货币金融政策需要聚焦稳增长与防风险的动态平衡,突出跨周期调节:坚持结构性调控的同时,适度放松货币总量政策,努力实现潜在经济增长;注重防范外部冲击特别是美联储政策变化导致的外溢性风险;做好防范包括房地产风险在内的国内重点风险应对预案;继续推进利率市场化改革,降低实体经济融资成本。

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    Abstract

    Thanks to the effective control of COVID-19 epidemic,the efficient hedging of counter-cyclical regulation policies and the orderly connection of cross-cyclical adjustments,China’s monetary policy and financial situation gradually returned to a relatively neutral level from extremely loose in 2021. Specifically,under the background of tighter macro policies and weaker financing demand,the growth rate of credit and total social financing,and macro leverage ratio decreased;the liquidity in money market was generally stable,and the short-term interest rate fluctuated at a low level;the domestic stock market was characterized by slight increase,differentiated internal structure and intensified volatility;the bond market was trapped into structural asset shortage,and credit bond financing recovered with obvious differentiation;the real estate market has cooled significantly;the soaring trend of domestic commodity prices has been effectively controlled;RMB exchange rate continued to rise. Looking forward to 2022,China’s financial risk prevention mainly lies in four aspects:external shock risk,real estate risk,local goverment debt risk,and small and medium-sized bank risk. Accordingly,monetary and financial policies need to focus on the dynamic balance between steady growth and risk prevention,and strengthen cross-cyclical adjustments. Firstly,adhere to the structural regulation and moderately loose the aggregate monetary policy to achieve potential economic growth. Secondly,focus on preventing external shocks,especially the spillover risk caused by the change of Fed’s policy;Thirdly,prepare major domestic risk response plans including the prevention of real estate risks;fourthly,promote the market-oriented reform of interest rate to reduce the financing cost of real economy.

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    作者简介
    张晓晶:张晓晶,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,主要研究方向为宏观经济学、宏观金融理论与发展经济学。
    费兆奇:费兆奇,中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员,主要研究方向为宏观金融、货币政策。
    曹婧:曹婧,中国社会科学院金融研究所助理研究员,主要研究方向为地方政府债务、财税理论与政策。
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