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    2020年北京人口老龄化对北京市未来劳动力市场均衡影响研究

    摘要

    第七次人口普查结果显示,2020年,北京市65岁及以上老年人口占比达到13。3%,已经接近中等老龄化阶段。在此背景下,北京市15~64岁劳动年龄人口占比从2015年的79。6%下降到2020年的74。8%,呈加速下降趋势,未来劳动力供需平衡面临挑战。基于当前北京市人口规划与经济规划,本报告分别预测了北京市2021~2050年劳动力供给与需求。预测发现,“十四五”期间,北京市劳动力供给将略有增加,劳动力供需基本平衡。直到2050年,劳动力供给将持续下降,“供不应求”的不平衡性逐渐突出。进一步,本报告模拟了理想的平衡状态下所需要的各项人口与经济变动参数,显示出需要从供给侧和需求侧两端发力,促使劳动力供需达到平衡。供给方面,推动大龄劳动年龄与女性人口就业,提高劳动参与率,增加劳动力供给规模;同时,增加教育投入与职业培训,提升劳动力质量,全面提升劳动力供给效率。需求方面,发展是最好的解决方案,促进技术进步与经济增长方式转变,进而降低就业弹性,减少劳动力需求。

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    Abstract

    The results of the seventh census show that in 2020,the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and over in Beijing has reached 13.3%,which is close to the middle aging stage. In this context,the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-64 in Beijing has dropped from 79.6% in 2015 to 74.8% in 2020,showing an accelerated downward trend. The balance of labor supply and demand in the future will be more challenging. Based on the current population planning and economic planning of Beijing,this report forecasts the labor supply and demand of Beijing from 2021 to 2050 respectively. It is predicted that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period,the supply of labor in Beijing will increase slightly,and the supply and demand of labor will be basically balanced. From then on until 2050,labor supply will continue to decline,and the imbalance of “supply exceeds demand” will become more and more prominent. Furthermore,this report simulates the various demographic and economic parameters required for an ideal equilibrium state,showing that efforts need to be made from both the supply side and the demand side to promote the balance of labor supply and demand. In terms of supply,we need to promote the employment of older working age and female population,raise labor participation rate,and boost labor supply scale;at the same time,invest more in education and vocational training,improve labor quality,and comprehensively enhance labor supply efficiency. On the demand side,development is the best solution to promote technological progress and the transformation of economic growth patterns,thereby reducing employment elasticity and shortening labor demand.

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    作者简介
    齐明珠:齐明珠,博士,首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为人口变动与经济发展、人口与就业、大城市人口问题等。
    王亚:王亚,首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院博士研究生,主要研究方向为人口变动与经济发展、人口与就业、大城市人口问题等。
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