This article analyzes China’s monetary policy decision making and the macroeconomic circumstances for monetary credit operation，points out that it is more difficult to judge the economic operation tendency and implement the monetary policy under the action of multiple factors. It is predicted that the declining international payment surplus for a period will slow down China’s foreign exchange reserves growth rate and facilitate relieve the currency authority’s pressure for passive issuing of base money. It proposes that the flexible adjustment of the monetary policy needs to consider the need of control inflation，commercial banks’ lending wills and the need of keeping the liquidity of the money system. It discusses China’s monetary policy trend from the following perspectives：China’s financial system and structure，the driving force and degree of financial innovation lags behind economic development needs，hold to the gradual openness of the capital items in the financial field，and orderly pushing forward financial innovation ought to be the long-term plan for China’s economic development and financial progress，and the makeshift for stabilizing the market in a short run should not damage the construction of long-run market system.