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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    2008~2009年中国宏观经济增长减速的因素分析

    摘要

    本文对2008年我国宏观经济增长形势进行分析,指出出口减速是上半年GDP增长速度高位回落的主要原因,而人民币升值、欧美经济放缓则是导致我国出口减速的主要原因。同时对2009年我国宏观经济增长前景进行了分析与预测,指出我国仍须特别关注当前国际金融危机的演变与欧美经济的走势以及它们对中国经济的负面影响;在国内方面,须特别警惕房地产市场低迷给中国经济带来的影响。2009年我国面临国际金融危机、欧美经济继续下滑将给我国出口带来巨大压力;固定资产投资继续高速增长压力较大;人均收入增加缓慢,消费继续加速增长潜力有限等相关不利因素。本文最后提出放缓人民币升值步伐,树立科学的经济发展观,逐步有序推进积极的财政政策,坚持并强化以内需为主的长期发展战略等相关建议。

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    Abstract

    This article analyzes the macroeconomic growth situation in 2008 and points out that the export deceleration is the top cause for the sharp decline of the GDP growth rate in the first half year,and RMP appreciation and economic slowdown of the Europe and America account for China’s export deceleration. It also analyzes and forecasts China’s macroeconomic growth in 2009,pointing out that special attention should be paid to the international financial crisis evolution and the European and American economic tendency and their negative impacts to China’s economy. At home,we should be particularly watchful with the influence of depressing real estate market to Chinese economy. China will be confronted with huge pressure on export from the global financial crisis and continual decline of the European and American economy in 2009. It is under pretty large pressure to keep the high-speed growth of investments in fixed assets:furthermore,there are negative factors like decelerated increase of per capita income and limited potential for accelerated growth of consumption. The final part of this article are some advice including slowing down RMB appreciation,erecting scientific outlook on economic development,gradually implementing the positive fiscal policy,holding to and intensifying the long-run development strategy that gives priority to the domestic demand.

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    作者简介
    秦宛顺:北京大学光华管理学院。
    钱士春:北京大学光华管理学院。
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