2008年,中国经济能够在将核心CPI上涨率控制在2%以下的同时实现接近10%的实际GDP增长速度。然而,中国经济景气将从2008年起进入本次经济周期的收缩阶段。本文依据中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测模型——CMAFM模型,分年度预测2008年与2009年中国宏观经济运行的基本形势。本文从经济增长潜力与经济周期相位、通货膨胀的历史趋势与结构因素、经济波动的需求驱动力与国际耦合性三个方面来预测宏观经济形势。同时提供了中国宏观经济政策评论,包括:凯恩斯主义、反向软着陆、微撞操作;稳健货币政策的价格稳定目标与风险管理。
<<In 2008,China can realize the actual GDP growth rate of nearly 10% while controlling the core CPI rate of rise below 2%. China’s economic climate,however,will enter the contraction phase of the current economic cycle since 2008. Based on China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Model (CMAFM) of Renmin University of China,the author forecasts China’s macroeconomic situation in 2008 and 2009 by year. The macroeconomic situation is forecasted in three aspects,i.e. economic growth potential and economic cycle phase,historical trend and structural factor of inflation,demand driving and international coupling of economic fluctuation. This article also offers comments on China’s macroeconomic policies including Keynesianism,reverse soft landing,and mild bump:price steadiness goal and risk management of the prudent monetary policy.
<<Keywords: | ForecastModelPhaseEconomic Climate |