本文基于在国内最早开发的“经济景气分析系统”建立的景气指数和“宏观经济监测预警信号系统”对主要经济指标的动态监测结果,对当前的经济景气状况和经济周期态势进行分析和判断,并采用多种经济计量模型对经济增长、物价等主要经济指标进行预测。此外,还分析探讨了PPI与CPI之间的影响关系,以及两者在变动时差上的新变化。在此基础上,对政府下一步的宏观调控提出相关的政策建议。指出在继续控制通货膨胀的同时,抵御国际因素的不利影响,保持经济在9%~10%的适度区间平稳增长,防止经济出现过度下滑,将成为政府宏观调控要面对的主要任务。
<<Based on the climate index that is established on the first “Macroeconomic Climate Analytical System”,and the dynamic monitoring results of “Macroeconomic Monitoring and Early Warning Signal System”,the author analyzes and judges the current economic climate and economic cycle tendency,and adopts several economic models to forecast some significant economic indices including economic growth and price. Furthermore,the author studies the relationship between PPI and CPI,and their new change in changing time difference. Then the author puts forward some policy advice for the government to implement macroeconomic control. It is pointed out that the government’s primary mission in macroeconomic control is to withstand the adverse impacts of international factors while continual control of inflation,keep the steady growth in the moderate area of 9%~10%,and prevent the excessive economic decline.
<<Keywords: | InflationIndexEconomic Climate |