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    2019年中国经济趋势展望

    摘要

    经济形势是国家宏观经济的运行状况和走向,回顾2018年我国经济形势是总体平稳,稳中求进,同时整体经济运行稳中有变、变中有忧。从其积极一面而言,经济发展趋势中的正面因素离不开我国的一系列战略导向目标以及资源禀赋,而不足之处也可能是由于我国制度和政策上的不足以及来自外部的干预等因素。本文通过着重分析2018年我国经济形势中的种种突破和成绩以及暴露出的不足及面临的问题,从而了解不同经济区域差别化宏观调控的对策的特点,实现国民经济和社会的动态均衡和协调发展。总体而言,2018年的中国经济面临着来自内部和外部的双重机遇与挑战,这也是2019年依旧会面临的问题。因而,为了实现不亚于2018年的经济发展形势,供给侧结构性改革仍作为发展推动的重点。总结经验教训进一步优化结构改革调整与实施,结合实践经验摒弃不利于发展的因素,做到推动经济形势良性发展,有重点地增进优势产业,改进完善当前发展的不足之处是十分重要的;2019年,要着力激发微观主体的活力,积极的财政政策和稳健中性的货币政策的继续实施尤其重要,同时着重落实“稳就业、稳金融、稳外贸、稳外资、稳投资、稳预期”政策,保持经济持续健康发展。

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    Abstract

    The economic situation is the state and trend of the country's macro-economy. Looking back at China's economic situation in 2018, it is generally stable, and progress is made while maintaining stability. On the positive side, the positive factors in the economic development trend are inseparable from a series of strategic guidance goals and resource endowments in China, and the deficiencies may also be due to factors such as institutional and policy deficiencies in China and external intervention. This article focuses on analyzing the various breakthroughs and achievements in China's economic situation in 2018, as well as the deficiencies and problems they face, so as to understand the characteristics of different macroeconomic control measures in different economic regions, and to achieve a dynamic and balanced development of the national economy and society. In general, the Chinese economy in 2018 is facing opportunities and challenges from both internal and external sources, which is also a problem that will still face in 2019. Therefore, in order to achieve an economic development situation no less than 2018, supply-side structural reforms remain the focus of development promotion. It is very important to summarize the experience and lessons to further optimize the structural reform, adjustment and implementation, combine practical experience to abandon the factors that are not conducive to development, promote the sound development of the economic situation, focus on promoting the advantageous industries, and improve the shortcomings of current development; In 2019, we must focus on stimulating the vitality of micro-subjects. The continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and a stable and neutral monetary policy is particularly important. At the same time, we must focus on "stabilizing employment, financial stability, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, and expectations." Policies to maintain sustained and healthy economic development. <<
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    作者简介
    曹雅芝:曹雅芝,中央财经大学财经研究院2017级区域经济学(上海)在职研修班学员,现供职于中国银行上海分行,任客户经理一职
    傅强:傅强,本文指导教师,中央财经大学财经研究院副教授。
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