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    人口变动与教育格局的变化趋势

    摘要

    目前我国正处于人口变动不断加速的历史时期,这将对学龄人口的规模及其在城乡间的分布产生较大影响,进而影响到未来我国教育事业的发展。根据2005年人口抽样调查数据,本文估算了未来各级教育学龄人口规模及供求缺口的变化趋势。未来我国的义务教育阶段将出现持续性的供大于求,高中教育也将出现供给规模过剩,大学教育在短期内仍不能满足国民的教育需求。据此,未来我国的教育发展策略应就人口变动的挑战,采取适应性的调整。

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    Abstract

    Currently China has entered a period in which the structure of its population is undergoing increasingly accelerated changes,and thereby exerts greater impact on the distribution of school-age population among urban and rural areas and influences the development of education in our country in the future. Based on the findings of a sample survey conducted in 2005,this article provides an estimate of the scale of school population at various stages of schooling and an estimate of the gaps between supply and demand of educational provision. It is forecast that in the years to come,at the stage of compulsory schooling,supply will exceed demand continuously,and at the stage of senior high school,oversupply of educational provision will occur,while at the stage of tertiary education,its provision in the near future will not be possible to satisfy the demand. Accordingly,it is a must that proper strategies for educational development should be taken to cope with the challenges faced and appropriate adjustments should be made.

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    作者简介
    蒯鹏州:蒯鹏州,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生,主要研究人力资本与经济发展
    江铨:江铨,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生。
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