2013年至今,PPP模式在中国基础设施投资建设过程中发挥了重要作用。在PPP模式推行之初,投资人仅通过分析招投标阶段的项目边界条件测算项目收益。随着项目的深入推进,各个环节都存在边界条件的变化导致项目收益的改变。投资人需通过不断调整投资管理行为应对项目边界条件改变带来的投资收益降低的风险,如融资落地时间延迟、建投比下降、运维成本上升等。本报告旨在通过PPP项目动态监测分析,将项目边界条件改变反映至项目收益变化,从而指导投资人的项目投资管理行为。
<<Since 2013,Public-Private Partnership(PPP)has played an important role in China’s infrastructure investment. At the beginning of the implementation of PPP mode,investors calculated the project internal return(IRR)by assumptions from bidding documents,As the project progresses,those assumptions have changed due to dynamic project advancement,which leads to the real IRR different from the initial IRR. Especially investors have to adopt dynamic investment management decisions to control adverse changes in project execution,such as delay of loan,downsizing of profitable investments contracts,rising of operating costs. This paper provides a new dynamic investment decision management method to help PPP projects investors timely grasp the impact of project assumption changes on IRR and explain how they are used in decision-making process.
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