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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    2021年中国民办教育行业总体发展趋势展望

    摘要

    2020年,新冠肺炎疫情所带来的经济停滞和人们思维方式的转变促进了教育行业的快速出清,许多中小机构退出市场,资本谨慎性增强,民办教育行业的集中度日益提高,细致化、多元化、灵活化已成为教育行业的发展方向。从我国针对教育行业特别是民办教育行业相关政策内容的变化可以看出,中国的民办教育经过几十年的蓬勃发展正在从被鼓励走向被规范、从规模化走向精细化。分板块来看,随着公职扩招、就业形势严峻等带动参培需求及国家公共预算的持续支持,未来职业教培行业将有更大的发展空间;受到利好政策、社会教育意识加强以及中小学学生升学压力升高等的影响,未来在线教育需求有望继续扩大并持续向二、三线城市渗透;在疫情和新高考改革影响下,各阶段教育的信息化建设进程进一步加快;到2019年,中国学前教育的毛入学率已达83%,去资本化、普惠化仍是主流发展方向;高等教育的毛入学率达51。6%,进入普及化发展阶段,高等教育阶段的专业设置和师生考核指标将更贴近经济社会的发展需要;K12教培市场仍然有千亿级,针对目前市场上存在的一些乱象,未来政策监管将进一步收紧;随着出国增速放缓和回国人数增加,国际教育市场将逐渐向后端服务转移。社会经济的实际发展情况和大众需求处于持续变化当中,未来发展具有较强的不确定性。新冠肺炎疫情对中国教育产业影响巨大,从长远来看,将进一步推进中国各级各类教育行业的供给侧改革,促进我国教育行业发展质量持续提高。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,the economic stagnation caused by the Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and the change of people’s way of thinking promote the rapid clearing of the education industry. Many small and medium-sized institutions have withdrawn from the market,capital prudence has increased,and the concentration of private education industry is increasing. Meticulous,diversified and spiritual activation have become the development direction of the education industry. It can be seen from the changes in the contents of the relevant policies for the education industry,especially the private education industry,that after decades of vigorous development,China’s private education is moving from encouragement to standardization,from scale to refinement. From the perspective of different sectors,the vocational education and training industry will have more space for development in the future due to the demand for participation and training driven by the expansion of public employment and the severe employment situation and the continuous support of the national public budget. Affected by favorable policies,the strengthening of social education awareness and the pressure of primary and secondary school students to go to higher education,the demand for online education is expected to continue to expand in the future,and continue to penetrate into the second and third tier cities. Under the influence of the epidemic situation and the reform of the new college entrance examination,the process of information construction of education at all stages has been further accelerated. By 2019,the gross enrollment rate of China’s preschool education has reached 83%,and de capitalization and inclusive education are still the mainstream development direction. The gross enrollment rate of higher education is 51.6%,and it has entered the stage of popularization. The specialty setting and teacher-student evaluation index of higher education will be closer to the needs of economic and social development. K12 education and training market is still 100 billion. In view of some chaos in the current market,policy supervision will be further tightened in the future. As the growth rate of going abroad slows down and the number of people returning home increases,the international education market will gradually shift to back-end services. The actual development of social economy and public demand are constantly changing,and the future development has strong uncertainty. COVID-19 has great influence on China’s education industry. In the long run,it will further promote the supply side reform of China’s educational industry at all levels and promote the continuous improvement of the quality of China’s education industry.

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    作者简介
    杨娟:杨娟,博士,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授,主要研究方向为教育经济学。
    劳林捷:劳林捷,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,主要研究方向为教育经济学。
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