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    裸泳者,退场——2020年地产上市公司综合实力排行榜

    摘要

    2020年,受疫情影响以及房住不炒、央行三道红线等政策影响,地产行业的销售增速放缓,周转速度减慢,多数企业都在积极减债,但行业整体的财务压力仍很大,地产行业面临深度调整可能。本报告分别从偿债能力、运营效率、融资能力、成长潜力和规模因素等维度对上市房地产企业进行评分,然后综合地产企业上述指标得分对地产上市公司的综合实力进行了评分,结果显示135家地产上市公司综合实力评分的均值为3。84分,中位数也为3。84分。其中,剔除规模因素后各项经营评分(偿债能力、运营效率、融资能力、成长潜力)均在2分以上、没有显著问题的公司有49家,占地产上市公司总数的36。3%;而各项经营评分均在5分以上、没有明显短板的公司仅有11家,占地产上市公司总数的8。1%;与之相对,全体地产上市公司中超六成企业都至少有一项经营评分低于2分,即面临较严重的经营问题。而在主要地产上市公司中,没有明显短板的企业占12。6%,有56。3%的企业至少在一项经营评分上得分低于2分;龙湖地产、中国海外、华润置地、保利地产、金地集团、万科、世茂集团、建发股份、新城控股、碧桂园、龙光集团、绿地控股、滨江集团、仁恒置地、华侨城、中国国贸、旭辉控股、雅居乐、荣安地产、招商蛇口进入2020年度地产上市公司综合实力排行榜的TOP20。最后,我们以偿债能力和融资能力为横轴,以运营效率和成长潜力为纵轴,对地产企业生存矩阵进行了分析,结论是有18%的企业当前就面临生存压力,有14%的企业虽然财务压力较大但尚有转型以自救的空间;有23%的企业虽然短期的财务压力不大,但受效率水平和成长空间的限制,只能通过合作开发来拓展生存空间;余下的、具有真正可持续发展潜力的企业仅占45%,其中有15%的企业具有整合潜能。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,affected by the epidemic and housing speculation,the central bank’s three red lines and other policies,the real estate industry sales growth slowed down,turnover slowed down,most enterprises are actively debt reduction,but the overall financial pressure of the industry is still very large,the real estate industry may face deep adjustment. This report from debt paying ability,operation efficiency,financing ability,growth potential and the rating scale factors on the listed real estate companies,and then the comprehensive real estate enterprises index score of the comprehensive strength of the real estate listed companies,the results show that the 135 listed property companies comprehensive strength score averages 3.84 points,a median of 3.84 points. Among them,49 companies (accounting for 36.3% of the total number of listed real estate companies) with all operating scores (debt paying ability,financing ability,operating efficiency,and growth potential) above 2 scores without significant problems after excluding the factor of size;However,there were only 11 companies,accounting for 8.1% of the total number of listed real estate companies,with all operating scores above 5 and no obvious shortcoming. In contrast,more than 60% of all listed real estate companies have at least one business score less than 2 points,that is,they are facing serious business problems. Among the major real estate listed companies,12.6% had no obvious shortcoming,and 56.3% had scored less than 2 points in at least one business score. Longhu real estate,overseas Chinese,China resources land,poly real estate,gemdale,vanke,shimao group,c&d co,new city holdings,country garden,Long Guang group,green land holdings,riverside group,yanlord land,oct,China international trade,xu hui holdings,agile,RongAn property,China merchants shekou entered the comprehensive power ranking of the TOP 2020 listed companies in real estate 20. Finally,we take solvency and financing capacity as the horizontal axis and operating efficiency and growth potential as the vertical axis to analyze the survival matrix of real estate enterprises. The conclusion is that 18% of enterprises are currently facing survival pressure,and 14% of enterprises still have room for transformation to save themselves although they are under great financial pressure. Although 23% of enterprises have little financial pressure in the short term,they can only expand their living space through cooperative development due to the limitation of efficiency level and growth space. The remaining enterprises with real sustainable development potential only account for 45%,of which 15% have integration potential.

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    作者简介
    杜丽虹:杜丽虹,中国社会科学院上市公司研究中心研究员。
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