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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
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李培林
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    新冠肺炎疫情冲击下全球医疗卫生产业链的挑战与发展前景

    摘要

    2020年新冠肺炎疫情蔓延全球,对我国企业和公民在海外的生产和生活造成重大的公共安全影响。未来2~3年,世界可能会处于”疫情防控常态化“之下,如何保障医疗卫生产业链安全将成为各个国家需要思考的问题。本报告对中国医疗卫生产业链发展现状,疫情冲击下关键医疗产品的供需变化以及疫苗分配等问题进行梳理。主要发现在于,2020年疫情防控成效主要取决于封锁以及个人防护产品的供应,中国在这方面表现出色。而发达国家,特别是美国的应对措施不力,加上用于疫情防控的个人防护产品的供应严重依赖海外生产,直接推动了医疗卫生产业供应链的重组。尤其值得指出的是,在新冠肺炎疫情发生之前,美国在个人防护用品方面高度依赖中国,这一情况加剧了美国对中国的指责。展望2021年,各国纷纷聚焦于疫苗的生产和分配,然而各主要生产商对短期内加速疫苗生产的困难估计不足,导致供应均低于预期。此外,”疫苗民族主义“加大了疫苗在各国的分配难度,这预示着疫苗接种不会那么顺利。如果要尽早结束疫情,那么各国的合作至关重要,而且合作的收益远大于各自为战。

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    Abstract

    The COVID-19 Pandemic was spreading all over the world in 2020,which has a significant impact on the public safety of Chinese enterprises and citizens’ production and life overseas. In the next 2-3 years,the world is likely to be under the “post-pandemic situation”. How to ensure the safety of the medical and health industry chain becomes a serious problem that every country needs to think about. This report examines the status of China’s medical and health industry chain,the supply and demand changes of key medical products under the impact of the pandemic,and vaccine distribution. The main findings of this report are that the prevention and control of the COVID-19 mainly depends on the the supply of personal protection products,and China has performed well in this regard. However,in developed countries,especially in the United States,many measures are unfavorable,and the supply of personal protection products for pandemic prevention and control relies heavily on overseas production,which directly promotes the restructuring of the supply chain of the medical and health industry. It is worth noting that before the outbreak of COVID-19,the United States highly relied on China in personal protective equipment,which aggravated the US accusation against China. In 2021,countries are focusing on the production and distribution of vaccines. However,major manufacturers underestimate the difficulties in accelerating vaccine production in the short term,resulting in lower supply than expected. In addition,“vaccine nationalism” also increases the difficulty of vaccine distribution in various countries. If we attempt to end the pandemic as soon as possible,then the cooperation of all countries is very important. In fact,the benefits of cooperation are far greater than beggar-my-neighbor policy.

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    作者简介
    钟飞腾:钟飞腾,中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院研究员,研究方向为国际政治经济学、中国海外利益保护和国际生产网络。
    张雯雯:张雯雯,中国社会科学院大学亚太系硕士研究生。
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