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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    世界经济环境及其对中国海外公共安全的影响

    摘要

    2020年,新冠肺炎疫情沉重打击了世界经济,导致GDP增速由正转负、国际贸易萎缩、全球失业率迅速上升的局面。不过在最初的”暴风骤雨“后,世界经济开始反弹,呈现”V“形走向。虽然失业率仍然高企,但是发达国家和新兴市场国家有望实现同步复苏,在2021年重新超过疫情前水平。与此同时,疫情加剧了美国等发达国家的分配不平等问题,加强了其”经济主权“的意识。由于中国的抗疫措施更为有效,中国在国际贸易、世界经济和政治中的影响力更加突出,中国与美国的经济博弈也因而更加激烈。这使得中国所处的次生外部经济环境更具挑战性,面临着投资政策收紧、海外经营和融资不确定性增强以及美国对华出口限制更加严格的局面,这也使得中国保障海外公共安全的任务变得更加复杂和紧迫。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,the COVID-19 has delivered a heavy blow to world economy,leading the growth of world GDP turnning to negative,the global trade contracts and the unemployment rates soar highly. After the early chaos,the world economy tends to rebound in a V type. Despite the high unemployment rate,the developed states and emerging market economies are expected to rebound simultaneously in the next year and the world economy may get back to the pre-pandemic level. Meanwhile,pandemic makes the distribution problem worse in developed states such as the United States and enhances the acceptance of economic sovereignty. As China rebounds from the pandemic recession more swiftly than other states by effective responses,its position in global trade and economy has been improved,and its rivalry with United States become fiercer. For China,the overall external situation will be much more challenging than before as United States and other powers restrict their FDI policy,access to financial market and export control. Therefore,the task to guarantee the overseas public security will also be more insurgent and complicated.

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    作者简介
    肖河:肖河,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员、国际战略研究室副主任,研究方向为大国战略和中美关系。
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