本文运用多源流理论分析广州市长期护理保险(以下简称“长护险”)政策变迁的进程,有助于理解推动长护险发展的相关要素。长护险自2016年起至今发展历程可被划分为萌芽启动、全面发展和政策调整三个阶段,总体政策变迁路径的主要变化体现在行政主管部门、参保对象、筹资模式、评估类别与失能评估标准、待遇覆盖面、服务类型及服务项目方面。在多源流理论的视角下,第一阶段政策发展的问题源流是人口老龄化、长护服务缺乏,政策源流是学界倡导和部分城市先行先试,政治源流是中央政策文件提出长护险概念,政策之窗是2016年人社部提出试点;第二、第三阶段政策变迁的问题源流为第一阶段试点存在的关于参保对象、筹资、服务质量和监管等各类问题,政策源流是学界倡导在地安老理念与其他试点城市的经验,政治源流是2020年医保局出台扩大试点的指导意见、人大代表相关提案以及人民群众的认可,政策之窗是政策有效期限即将到达。通过对三阶段发展进行多源流分析,本文提出未来广州长护险的改革思路与发展方向。
<<This paper uses the Multiple-Streams Theory to analyze the process of long-term care insurance policy changes in Guangzhou,which helps us to understand the different factors that promote the development of long-term care insurance. Since 2016,long-term care insurance can be divided into three stages:budding,comprehensive development and policy adjustment. The main changes of the overall policy change path are reflected in administrative departments,insured objects,financing models,assessment categories and disability assessment standards,treatment coverage,service types and service items. From the perspective of the Multiple-Streams Theory,the Problem Streams in the first stage are population aging and lack of long-term care services,the Policy Streams are advocated by the academic community and some cities are the first to try out,and the Political Streams are the concept of long-term care insurance proposed in the policy document of the central government. The Policy Window is a pilot proposed by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in 2016. The Problem Streams of the second and third stages are the problems of the pilot in the first stage about insurance applicants,financing,quality of service,supervisions and so on,the Policy Streams are pilot cities experience on elderly care services advocated by the academic community,and the Political Streams are the guidance to expand the pilots issued by health bureau in 2020,related proposals of deputy to National People’s Congress,and people’s recognition. The Policy Window is that the policy expiry date is approaching. Through the multiple-streams analysis of the three stages of development,this paper puts forward the reform ideas and development directions of Guangzhou’s long-term insurance in the future.
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