研究福建省碳排放特征、科学预测下阶段发展态势,是开展碳达峰、碳中和工作的基础。从历史排放数据看,福建省碳排放与经济发展、产业结构密切相关,主要集中在供电供热、制造业、居民生活和交通运输4个行业,占比高达97。0%。通过EKC-STIRPAT模型对福建省全社会碳排放和重点行业碳排放进行分析预测,结论表明:福建省预计在2030年实现碳达峰,排放峰值为3。29亿吨,供电供热和交通运输业晚于全社会达峰,居民生活与全社会同步达峰,制造业早于全社会达峰。为顺利实现碳达峰发展目标,下阶段福建省应统筹制定碳减排行动方案、加快推动交通领域、工业领域节能减排,促进能源结构低碳发展。
<<Studying the characteristics of carbon emissions of Fujian and scientifically predicting the development trends in the next stage are the basis for carrying out relevant work. Based on historical emissions data,carbon emissions of Fujian are closely related to economic development and industrial structure,especially the power and heatingsupply,manufacturing,residential,and transportation sectors,which account for 97.0% of the overall emissions. The analysis and forecast of carbon emission of the whole society and key sectorsusing EKC-STIRPAT model shows that:Fujian will reach carbon peak in 2030 with the peak of 329 million tons Power and heating supply and transportation sectors will peak later than the whole society;residential sector will peak in the same pace with the whole society;manufacturing sector will peak earlier than the whole society. To successfully reach carbon peak,Fujian should formulate reasonable carbon emissions reduction action plans in the next stage,accelerate the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation and industrial sectors,and promote the low-carbon development of the energy structure.
<<