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谢伏瞻
    中国社会科学院学部委员,学部主席团主席,研究员,博士生导师。历任中国社会科学院院长、党组书记,国务院发展中心副主... 详情>>
蔡 昉
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李培林
    男,汉族,出生于1955年5月,山东济南人,博士,研究员,全国人民代表大会社会建设委员会副主任委员,中国社会科学... 详情>>

    中国进入发展的新成长阶段——2009~2010年中国社会发展形势分析与预测

    摘要

    2009年是中华人民共和国成立60周年,中国举行了盛大庆典仪式,同时2009年也是中国经济社会发展受到国际金融危机深刻影响的一年。中国快速采取了一系列重大措施,保增长、保民生、保稳定,有效地抵御和化解了国际金融危机的影响。2009年全年国内生产总值增长达到8%以上,城乡居民收入稳定增长,居民消费价格总水平涨幅4%左右;城镇新增就业可达1100多万人,就业形势的紧张得到控制;覆盖城乡的社会保障体系建设快速推进;粮食生产再创历史新高,实现近40年来首次连续6年增产。但是,收入差距问题依然严峻,扩大内需受到限制;就业问题依然突出;环境保护任务艰巨。然而,从经济复苏、就业恢复、消费增长、物价稳定等经济社会发展的关键指标来看,中国将率先走出国际金融危机的阴影,进入发展的新成长阶段。这一方面意味着我国经济增长速度将重新进入8%以上的新一轮增长周期,另一方面意味着新一轮增长周期的推动力,与过去相比将发生明显变化,将更加依赖于产业结构升级、经济社会结构转型和国内消费增长。

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    Abstract

    2009 marked the 60th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China with a grand ceremony held in Beijing,China. Meanwhile,China was deeply affected by the international financial crisis. In response,a number of prompt measures were taken by the Chinese government to ensure economic growth,people’s livelihoods and social stability,which effectively reduced the impact of the international financial crisis. The GDP growth of 2009 exceeded 8%;income of urban and rural residents grew steadily;the overall level of consumer price increased about 4%. With 11 million of new jobs created in urban areas,the pressure of employment was lessened. Development of the social security system which would cover urban and rural areas advanced rapidly. New record of grain production was set,which made the first consecutive growth for 6 years over 40 years. However,the income disparity remains significant;increase of domestic demand is limited;employment issue is still serious;environmental protection is challenging. Yet,based on the key indicators of economic and social development,such as economic recovery,employment reactivation,consumption growth and price stability,China will lead to recover from the international financial crisis and move into a new stage of growth. On the one hand,China will resume a new cycle of GDP growth rate over 8%;on the other hand,there will be dramatic change in the driving force of the growth. Compared with the past,the new stage will be marked by upgrading of the industrial structure,transformation of the economic and social structure,and expansion of the domestic demand.

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    作者简介
    中国社会科学院“社会形势分析与预测”课题组:课题负责人:汝信、陆学艺、李培林。参加本报告讨论的有:汝信、陆学艺、李培林、黄平、陆建华、沈杰。
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