本文运用脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,考察广州1978~2007年间服务业与制造业之间的长期动态特征,并进一步分析其内部结构互动的影响。结果显示:目前广州服务业与制造业互为促动关系。但制造业发展对服务业发展促进作用较大,甚至大于服务业自身产生的作用,制造业增长的动力基本源于自身。服务业的促进作用主要来源于生产性服务业,其中传统部门对制造业的推动作用较大,而现代部门对制造业的推动作用尚未显现出来。这与广州目前服务业竞争力状况相吻合。据此,提出相关的政策建议。
<<Using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method based on VAR model,this paper reviews the long time dynamic correlation between Guangzhou’s services industry and manufacturing industry during the period of 1978 to 2007,and further analyses the impacts of the internal structure interaction.The results show that,so far there is a dynamic interaction between Guangzhou’s services industry and manufacturing industry.The development of manufacturing industry has a greater effect on the promotion of services industry,and even grater than the effect from services industry itself.However,the impetus of manufacturing industry mainly comes from its own.Further analysis finds that,the impetus of service industry to manufacturing industry is mainly from producer service sectors,within which,the tradition sectors have a greater role to the manufacturing industry,while the modern sectors’ role haven’t completely shown yet.
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