本研究以淮海经济区10个地级市为研究对象,基于2011~2019年文旅产业相关数据,分别使用赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数法和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对淮海经济区文旅融合发展现状和未来发展趋势进行测度和预测。研究发现当前淮海经济区文旅融合整体处于中高度融合(协同发展融合)水平,其中临沂市和徐州市文旅融合水平最高,菏泽市、宿迁市和商丘市则相对较低。“十四五”期间淮海经济区文旅融合水平将逐年稳定提高并呈现良好的发展态势。
<<Taking 10 cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone as the research object,this paper uses the Herfindahl-Hirschman index method and the GM (1,1) gray forecast model to measure and forecast the current development status and future development trends of culture and tourism integration in the Huaihai Economic Zone. The research is based on the data related to the culture and tourism industry from 2011 to 2019. It is found from the study that the current integration of culture and tourism in the Huaihai Economic Zone is at a medium-to-high level of integration. Among the 10 cities,Linyi and Xuzhou have the highest level in the culture and tourism integration,while Heze,Suqian and Shangqiu are not so high. During the 14th Five Year Plan period,the integration of culture and tourism in the Huaihai Economic Zone will steadily increase year by year and present good development trend.
<<Keywords: | Huaihai Economic ZoneCultural and Tourism IntegrationHerfindahl-Hirschman Index MethodGray Forecasting Model |