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房地产业对经济的发展起着举足轻重的作用，但市场因各种因素导致的不确定性困扰着投资者和消费者。对此，本文从陕西省、各市（区）的各类房地产投资额、销售均价、商品房销售面积出发，以陕西省2009～2019年统计年鉴的数据为基础，以波动离差率为衡量指标对陕西省房地产不确定性进行分析。结果表明，2013～2019年陕西省和西安市房地产市场不确定性较低，说明2017年后的房地产调控政策初见成效，但各地、各年、各类房地产市场不确定性差异较大，房地产经营仍面临一些风险。据此提出两点政策建议：应该以促进供求平衡的房地产政策引导房地产企业的投资预期；针对房地产市场的地区差异性，探索“一城一策”实现途径。
<<The real estate industry plays an important role in the economic development，but the uncertainty of the market caused by various factors plagues investors and consumers. Therefore，this report analyzes the uncertainty of real estate in Shaanxi Province based on the data of the statistical yearbook during 2009 to 2019 of Shaanxi Province and cities in Shaanxi Province. The results show that there are low uncertainty of the real estate market in both Shaanxi Province and Xi’an city from 2013 to 2019，which indicates that the real estate regulation policy achieved initial results. However，the uncertainty of the real estate market varies greatly among different palces，years and types，and the real estate operation still faces some risks.
Two policy suggestions are given：① The investment expectation of real estate enterprises should be guided by the real estate policy of promoting the balance of supply and demand；②In view of the regional differences of the real estate market，this paper explores the realization way of “one city，one policy”.
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