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    埃塞俄比亚:疫情与冲突中寻求经济和政治转型

    摘要

    新冠肺炎疫情与国内安全和治理问题叠加对埃塞俄比亚经济发展和政治转型造成冲击。作为非洲人口大国和航空枢纽,埃塞俄比亚疫情关系到整个非洲的疫情防控。埃塞俄比亚政府采取封禁措施、调动国内外医疗资源积极应对疫情带来的负面影响。新冠肺炎疫情严重影响埃塞俄比亚政府的财政收入、债务偿还、外商投资和就业,全球价值链收缩为埃塞俄比亚的制造业发展和经济转型带来压力,但阿比政府从政府主导投资向市场化转变的经济改革方向仍将继续。因疫情推迟选举,埃塞俄比亚国内政治分歧进一步加大,政治动荡不断加剧,特别是提格雷地区武装冲突及其后续影响可能给埃塞俄比亚此后一段时间的发展前景平添更多阴霾。埃塞俄比亚仍是非洲最有能力和韧性应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击的国家之一,疫情对埃塞俄比亚的政治和经济造成多大的影响取决于疫情的传播、疫苗的接种、埃塞政府的抗疫措施和经济恢复措施,以及埃塞自身的经济和政治转型。

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    Abstract

    Ethiopia’s economic development and political transformation have been affected by the COVID-19,which is compounded by the domestic security and governance problems. As a second most populous country and aviation hub in Africa,the epidemic situation in Ethiopia is related to the prevention and control of COVID-19 across Africa. To mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19,the Ethiopian government has taken restrictive measures and mobilized domestic and international medical resources. Ethiopia’s fiscal revenue,debt repayment,foreign investment and employment have been seriously affected by the epidemic. Also,the shortening of global value chains has put pressure on Ethiopia’s manufacturing development and economic transformation. Facing economic challenges,Ahmed Administration will continue the economic reform path transforming from government-led to market-oriented economy. The postponement of the election caused by the epidemic,coupled with domestic political differences,has led to increasing political turmoil in Ethiopia. Most worryingly,the armed conflict in Tigray region and its subsequent impact may deepen the gloom of Ethiopia’s future. However,Ethiopia remains one of the most capable and resilient countries in Africa to deal with COVID-19. The extent of COVID-19 pandemic impact on Ethiopia’s economy and politics depends on the spread of the epidemic,distribution of vaccines,effectiveness of the government’s anti-epidemic measures and economic recovery measures,as well as the ongoing economic and political transformation of Ethiopia.

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    作者简介
    周瑾艳:周瑾艳,上海外国语大学全球治理与区域国别研究院助理研究员,主要研究领域为非洲发展问题。
    姜璐:姜璐,上海对外经贸大学国际发展合作研究院助理研究员,主要研究领域为非洲国家政治经济与中非关系。
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