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李培林
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    疫情对非洲制造业的影响

    摘要

    工业化是全球各国经济发展难以回避的阶段,制造业则是工业化的核心。过去20多年,非洲工业化进展缓慢,制造业发展尤为滞后,对非洲增长、就业和减贫的贡献相当有限。2012~2019年,非洲制造业增加值占全球比重始终保持在2%左右。2020年2月新冠肺炎疫情蔓延至非洲,给本就薄弱的非洲制造业带来沉重打击,主要表现在疫情防控导致的停工停产,供应链中断引发的投入品短缺,需求萎缩带来的订单下滑、收入下降等方面。2021年,随着全球疫情形势逐步好转,非洲制造业正在走出低谷,呈现恢复性增长。当前非洲制造业仍拥有劳动力供给充足、市场潜力大等传统优势,也面临一些新的机遇,如医药产品需求上升、区域一体化加速推进、数字经济蓬勃发展等。非洲国家政府在本次抗击疫情的过程中,显示了更高的行动效率,也更加深刻地认识到经济多元化和提高自主产业能力的重要性。如果非洲各国政府能以此为契机,不断提高治理能力,为制造业发展提供更为有效的政策支持,后疫情时代非洲制造业有望迎来新一轮发展机遇期。

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    Abstract

    Industrialization is an unavoidable stage in the economic development of all countries,and manufacturing is the core of industrialization. Over the past two decades,Africa’s industrialization has made slow progress,especially the development of manufacturing,which has made limited contribution to Africa’s growth,employment and poverty reduction. From 2012 to 2019,the percentage of Africa’s manufacturing in the world’s total in terms of value added remained a low level of about 2%. Since February 2020,the spread of COVID-19 pandemic to Africa has brought devastating effects on the weak manufacturing industry,mainly shown as the stoppage of production caused by the epidemic prevention and control measures,the shortage of inputs caused by the disruption of supply chain,the decline of orders and the decline in income resulting from the shrinking demand. In 2021,with the gradual improvement of the global epidemic situation,African manufacturing industry is coming out of the trough and showing a restorative growth. At present,African manufacturing industry still has the conventional advantages of abundant labor supply and great market potential,but also faces some new opportunities,such as the rising demand for pharmaceutical products,the acceleration of regional integration,and the vigorous development of digital economy. In the process of fighting against the COVID-19,African governments have shown a higher efficiency of action,and more deeply realized the importance of economic diversification and enhancing the ability of independent development. If African governments can take this opportunity to continuously improve their governance capacity and provide more effective policy support,African manufacturing is expected to gain new momentum in the post COVID-19 era.

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    作者简介
    徐泽来:徐泽来,中非发展基金研究发展部副总经理,主要研究领域为经济发展、非洲经济。
    郝睿:郝睿,中非发展基金研究发展部总经理,主要研究领域为经济发展、非洲经济。
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