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谢伏瞻
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李培林
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    2020~2021年中国地方政府债务的可持续性分析

    摘要

    本报告主要从理论逻辑上厘清债务风险、财政风险、公共风险的关系,剖析现有债务管理中存在的问题,从时间和空间两个维度看待债务价值,提出要把债务风险和公共风险的平衡作为地方政府债务可持续性的基本标准。最后提出实现地方政府债务可持续的四类基本原则,即财力与事权匹配、债务规模与偿债能力对应、风险与收益对称、短期债务与长期债务协调。同时提出相关政策建议:一是改革地方政府绩效考核方式;二是完善中央和地方的财政关系,避免地方政府债务风险上移;三是建立债务绩效管理制度,降低债务风险和公共风险;四是建立财政金融的协同机制以减轻债务违约风险。

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    Abstract

    This article mainly clarifies the relationship between the debt risk,the fiscal risk and the public risk theoretically and logically,analyzes the existing problems in debt management,looks at debt value from the two dimensions of time and space,and puts forward requirements the balance between the debt risk and public risk is taken as the basic criterion for the sustainability of local government debt. Finally,four basic principles for the sustainability of local government debt are put forward,namely,the matching of financial rights and powers,the correspondence between the debt scale and solvency,the symmetry of risks and returns,and the coordination of short-term debt and long-term debt. At the same time,relevant policy recommendations are put forward,including:firstly,reform the local government performance appraisal method. The second is to improve the fiscal relationship between the central and the local governments to prevent the risk of local government debt from rising. The third is to establish a debt performance management system to reduce the debt risks and public risks. The fourth is to establish a fiscal and financial coordination mechanism to reduce the risk of debt default.

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    作者简介
    王志刚:王志刚,研究员,财政学博士生导师,中国财政科学研究院宏观经济研究中心副主任,研究方向为宏观经济、政府债务、财税政策评估。
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