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    2020年广州经济形势分析与2021年展望

    摘要

    2020年,在新冠肺炎疫情严重冲击和复杂严峻的国内外环境下,广州经济稳定恢复并实现正增长,完成地区生产总值25019。11亿元,增长2。7%。从产业看,制造业总体恢复快于服务业;从需求看,消费需求稳步恢复,投资对经济增长的支撑作用增强,外贸出口实现正增长。展望2021年,新冠肺炎疫情仍在全球肆虐,世界经济形势比较严峻,主要经济体为应对新冠肺炎疫情危机仍保持宽松的货币和财政政策;我国经济虽然较快恢复但增长基础尚不牢固,宏观政策将保持连续性、稳定性、可持续性,将实施更可持续并提质增效的积极财政政策以及灵活精准且合理适度的货币政策,继续强化就业优先政策;粤港澳大湾区建设深入推进,广州城市更新和数字经济加快发展。综合考虑各方面因素,预计2021年广州经济有望保持较高增速,将呈现前高后低走势,全市地区生产总值增速将在7。6%~9。3%区间。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,with the severe impact of COVID-19 epidemic and the complex domestic and international environment,Guangzhou’s economy recoverd steadily and achieved positive growth. GDP reached 2.50 trillion RMB with an increase of 2.7%. In terms of industry,the recovery of manufacturing industry was faster than that of service industry. In terms of demand,consumer demand recovered steadily,investment played a stronger role in supporting economic growth,and export achieved positive growth. Looking forward to 2021,COVID-19 is still rampant in the world,and the world economic situation is relatively grim. Major economies will still maintain loose monetary and fiscal policies to cope with the COVID-19 crisis. China’s economy has recovered fairly quickly,but the foundation for growth is still not solid. Our macro policies will maintain continuity,stability and sustainability. We will implement a proactive fiscal policy that is more sustainable and improves the quality and efficiency of the economy and a flexible,precise,reasonable and appropriate monetary policy,and continue to strengthen the employment-first policy. The development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be promoted further,and the urban renewal and digital economy of Guangzhou will be accelerated. Considering various factors,the research group predicts that the GDP growth rate of Guangzhou will range from 7.6% to 9.3% in 2021,showing a trend of high growth at the beginning and low growth in the end of the year.

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    作者简介
    欧江波:欧江波,广州市社会科学院经济研究所所长、副研究员,博士,研究方向为宏观经济、城市经济、房地产经济。
    唐碧海:唐碧海,广州市社会科学院经济研究所副所长、副研究员,博士,研究方向为宏观经济、数量经济。
    伍晶:课题组成员
    范宝珠:课题组成员
    周圣强:课题组成员
    陈璐:课题组成员
    周兆钿:课题组成员
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