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    2020年俄罗斯实体经济发展

    摘要

    2020年俄罗斯实体经济受国际大宗商品价格下调、全球经济增长乏力、新冠肺炎疫情传播抑制需求增长等不利因素影响下滑明显。实体经济增加值同比下降,且对国内生产总值的贡献率有所回落。2020年俄罗斯谷物生产再创新高,农副产品出口成为新亮点,但甜菜、葵花籽、玉米等主要经济作物的减产还是拖累了农业的整体发展。俄罗斯采矿业2020年衰退明显,煤炭、石油、天然气产量同比减少4109万吨、4872万吨和450亿立方米,直接经济损失达数百亿美元。同样面临国内外市场需求低迷的制造业,在2020年中后期凭借医药、化工、纺织、食品等行业的强劲反弹而勉强走出衰退。建筑业整体低迷,全年交付面积同比下降1。9%,受疫情对服务业冲击持续加深的影响,2020年俄商业设施交付面积同比下降了23。66%。虽然俄政府凭借包括货币宽松在内的各类调控政策对实体经济衰退起到了一定的缓冲与平滑作用,各项指标也在第三、四季度有所好转,但俄实体经济仍经历了2015年经济危机以来最严重的产出下滑。

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    Abstract

    In 2020,Russia’s real economy has declined significantly due to adverse factors such as the downward of international commodity prices,the weak growth of global economy,and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic that inhibits demand growth. The real economy has declined compared with a year earlier,and its contribution to GDP has dropped as well. In 2020,Russia’s cereal production hit a new high,and the export of agricultural and sideline product has become a bright spot. However,the decline in the production of major cash crops such as sugar beet,sunflower seeds,and corn has encumbered the overall development of agriculture. Russia’s mining industry has also declined significantly in 2020. The output of coal,oil,and natural gas has decreased by 41.09 million tons,48.72 million tons and 45 billion cubic meters respectively compared with a year earlier,costing tens of billions of dollars in lost. Facing the sluggish demand market,the manufacturing industry barely gets out of recession due to the strong rebound in the pharmaceutical,chemical,textile,and food industries in the middle and late of the year. The overall construction industry remains gloomy and the delivery area for the year fell by 1.9%. Affected by the continued impact of the epidemic on the service industry,the delivery area of commercial facilities has dropped by 23.66%. Although the governmental policies including monetary easing has played a role in buffering and smoothing the real economic recession,and various indicators have also improved in the third and fourth quarters,the Russian real economy has still experienced the worst decline since the economic crisis in 2015.

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    作者简介
    徐坡岭:徐坡岭,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所俄罗斯经济室主任,研究员。
    王晶:王晶,中国社会科学院大学研究生院博士研究生。
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